Real Estate market forecast 2026
After a 2025 marked by moderate yet solid growth in the national real estate market, according to Nomisma Italia— a leading company in sector research and studies— forecasts for the 2026 real estate market point to a renewed upswing and further growth, albeit at still moderate rates.
Third Real Estate Market Observatory 2025
In early December 2025, Nomisma presented the Third Real Estate Market Observatory 2025, including the year-end review. According to these data, the residential segment was the one that recorded the strongest growth in transaction volumes, driven by strong demand and improved access to credit, supported by interest rates that were lower compared to previous years.
Mortgage lending increased significantly, contributing to a rise in property transactions nationwide (around +5.5%) and to a slight increase in prices (+0.6% in the second half of 2025).
As for the commercial segment, Nomisma recorded a decline in demand for offices and spaces for traditional businesses in 2025. The reasons are mainly linked to the profound transformation of the market, above all the growing need to redesign spaces to meet demand for properties intended for hybrid uses, such as co-working spaces.
What will the Real Estate market trend be in 2026?
The 2026 Real Estate market is expected to grow compared to 2025, as confirmed by Nomisma’s Observatory. This is largely due to the continued presence of tax incentives related to residential properties and, more broadly, to energy-efficiency measures. These factors, together with new and favorable credit conditions, are expected to positively fuel the market.
Forecasts indicate that demand for residential properties will remain high, with steady growth in interest toward environmentally sustainable solutions.
According to analyses by Scenari Immobiliari, in 2026 the Italian market could exceed 800,000 residential transactions, with a general increase in activity. Prices, while not expected to spike sharply, may record moderate but stable growth, with particular attention to high energy-efficiency properties, which are increasingly sought after by both private buyers and investors.
Luxury Real Estate Market in 2026
As for the luxury real estate market, demand had already shown strong growth in 2025 after the slowdown of previous years. In particular, Tuscany stands out as the most sought-after Italian region for those looking for luxury properties and villas.
For 2026 as well, forecasts point to strong demand in the luxury segment, confirming that high-end real estate continues to be a driving force, with a predominantly foreign clientele—led by buyers from the United States and Northern Europe.
Prices are expected to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels, but in major cities such as Rome, Milan, Turin, and Florence, price peaks cannot be ruled out, especially in urban areas or emerging locations. In Florence in particular, according to data from the Independent Institute for Studies, Research, Valuations, and Information Systems, average increases between +2.5% and +3% are expected. This rise is mainly driven by foreign investors, especially interested in second homes.
Find out our Exclusive PropertiesBuying or selling property in 2026
According to Nomisma’s forecasts, buying property in 2026 could be a good choice, especially over the long term. As for interest rates, expectations regarding the ECB point to a further cut to 1.5–2% by the end of 2026.
At the same time, selling may be the right option for those who own property in highly sought-after areas and wish to take advantage of peak prices.
Overall, 2026 is shaping up to be a year in which it will be possible to plan a successful real estate investment.
Rental Market 2026
At the national level, the rental market already grew by +6.6% in 2025, with Milan, Bologna, and Florence leading the way. This trend, which is expected to remain stable in 2026, is essentially driven by two factors: fewer affordable homes available for purchase and a growing population of renters.
This trend naturally benefits investors who have long focused on long-term rentals of furnished properties.
Conversely, even in major cities and albeit slowly, the boom in short-term/tourist rentals is slowing down. Factors affecting this trend in 2026 include the new national registration code (CIN) for all properties, the temporary ban on remote self check-in, and growing public criticism of overtourism. In 2025, national AirDNA data showed occupancy rates falling from 78% to 70%, with Rome at around 65%.
Why choose Studio Immobiliare Sì to buy or sell your home
With nearly twenty years of experience and professional expertise in the real estate sector, and a strong focus on the luxury segment, Studio Immobiliare Sì is the ideal partner to manage every phase of the transaction, ensuring security and the satisfaction of a successful deal.
Thanks to a team of professionals with in-depth knowledge of the Tuscan real estate market and the national market, you can be confident you are relying on people who share your same goal: to ensure a real estate investment built on a clear strategy, thorough analysis, and careful management.
